Getting Started

Learn

This is your playbook for understanding the market's real-money story. We break down every concept behind our Insights and Analysis in plain English, so you can see exactly how we turn complex data into a clear, daily message for your farm.

See What the MarketReallyThinks

Grain marketing is noisy. Opinions fly. Headlines jump. Charts flash.

But under all that chatter… the market is quietly making real-money bets. Every day, through every option traded, the board is showing you something: what the crowd actually believes about the future price of corn.

That’s what we show you here.

We take the raw futures and options data — the kind hedge funds and merchandisers use — and turn it into something you can understand and act on.

No hype. No jargon. Just the collective intelligence of the market, decoded for your farm.

You Don’t Need to Understand Options to Use This Site

Everything on WhatsCornGonnaDo.com is built for farmers.

You don’t need to trade options. You don’t need to study volatility. You don’t even need to know what a “25 delta call” is.

We show you what the market is pricing — the crowd’s message — in plain English, so you can make better marketing decisions whether you’ve used options for years or never touched them.

Curious to learn more? This page is for you. We explain what’s behind the numbers — and why it matters — only if and when you want to dig deeper.

Insights

Current

Each morning, the Current insight gives you a clear, data-driven read on the market’s lean from the prior trading day. It’s not a live feed or a prediction; it’s a daily reset that shows what the real-money crowd has already priced in, so you can start your day with an unbiased view.

What You’ll See

The page is designed for a quick read, starting with the most important takeaway and then offering more detail. Tap the thumbnail below to open an example page.

  • The Arrow & Quick Note: At the top, you’ll find an arrow (see legend below) and a short, three-line summary. These two pieces give you an instant sense of the market’s direction and strength based on the Last Trading Day.
  • The Daily Unpack: Below the arrow, a plain-language summary breaks down the day’s action. It covers recent price trends, the crowd’s lean, key price levels to watch, and what the market is pricing for a typical day’s move.

How to Read It

This section is all about understanding the market’s collective view, without the noise of news or opinions. Use it to answer questions like:

  • Which way was the real-money crowd leaning yesterday?
  • How strong was that lean?
  • What’s a “normal” price move right now?

Arrow Legend

Green Arrow — Strong Upward Pressure

Green — Strong Upward Pressure

Buyers have the upper hand. Dips tend to get bought. Bigger up‑moves are possible and can last several days.

Blue Arrow — Mild Upward Tilt

Blue — Mild Upward Tilt

Upward lean, but not forceful. Moves are moderate and can flip with new information. Expect some choppiness.

Neutral Arrow — Two‑Sided / Undecided

Neutral — Two‑Sided / Undecided

Range‑bound or whippy. No clear push up or down. Bigger moves are less likely — or possible both ways when tape is whippy.

Orange Arrow — Mild Downward Tilt

Orange — Mild Downward Tilt

Leaning lower, but bounces happen. Sellers have a slight edge. Moves are moderate and can reverse with new developments.

Red Arrow — Strong Downward Pressure

Red — Strong Downward Pressure

Sellers in control. Rallies tend to fail. Sharp down‑moves are more likely and can persist for several days.

This page is not a buy/sell recommendation — it’s a clear read on today’s market lean so you can plan with eyes open.

Outlook

The daily Outlook summary pulls together the market’s crowd view into one clear, farmer‑friendly briefing. It focuses on what the board has already priced, not opinions or headlines.

What You’ll See

Tap the thumbnail below to open an example page. You’ll see the same structure used on the live site—clean, plainspoken context from the prior trading day.

Anatomy of the Outlook Summary

Each Outlook is built around a consistent set of themes, each derived from a specific type of market analysis:

1. Sentiment Analysis

This section assesses the balance of buying versus selling pressure by analyzing the relative cost of call options (bets on higher prices) and put options (bets on lower prices). It directly answers: Is the market more concerned about missing a rally or being caught in a decline? This reveals the immediate, collective lean of traders across different timeframes (e.g., next week, next few months).

2. Trend Analysis

This component looks for signs of trend continuation or exhaustion. It often compares the behavior of near-term futures contracts with longer-term ones. A common pattern is seeing deferred contracts show strength while the front-month lags, which can signal that a prevailing downtrend is losing steam. It helps answer: Is the current trend still intact, or are there early signs of a potential turn?

3. Volatility Analysis

Derived from options pricing, this measures the market's expectation for the size of future price swings. A low reading implies the crowd expects calm, range-bound trading, while a high reading suggests bigger price moves are anticipated. This analysis provides context for risk management by answering: Is the market pricing in a quiet period or a turbulent one?

4. Tail Risk Analysis

This focuses on the perceived probability of extreme, unexpected price moves (a "crash" or "spike"). By examining the cost of far out-of-the-money options, we can gauge if the market is actively insuring against a shock. It addresses the question: Is the crowd complacent, or is it on high alert for a blindsiding event?

5. Price Distribution Analysis

This identifies key price levels where large volumes of options contracts are clustered. These zones often act as support or resistance because significant financial interest is anchored there. This answers: Where are the key price levels that could act as floors or ceilings in the near term?

How to Use This Insight

  • Strategic Context: Use the Outlook summary to step back from the daily grind and see the bigger picture. It helps frame whether the current market posture favors patience or urgency in your marketing plan.
  • Connecting the Dots: The summary is powerful because it connects different, seemingly unrelated pieces of analysis into a coherent story. It shows how sentiment, trend, and risk are interacting.
  • Informing Deeper Dives: If the Outlook highlights elevated risk, you can then dive into the specific Risk analysis page for more detail. It acts as your guide to know which deeper analysis is most relevant right now.

Hedge or Hold

The Hedge or Hold Insight is designed to answer one of the most practical questions on the farm: "Based on what the market is showing today, should I protect my price or wait for a better opportunity?" It synthesizes multiple streams of market analysis into a single, clear, daily recommendation.

This isn't a prediction or a guarantee. It's a disciplined interpretation of the market's collective, real-money view, helping you align your marketing decisions with the current risk and reward picture.

What You’ll See

Tap the thumbnail below to open an example page. You’ll see the same structure used on the live site—plain, decision‑ready guidance tied to the prior trading day.

The Two Recommendations

You will see one of two simple recommendations each day:

  • HEDGE: This is a defensive recommendation. It appears when the balance of market data suggests that the risk of prices falling or staying flat is greater than the potential for them to rise. A "Hedge" signal encourages protecting the value of your unpriced crop against potential downside.
  • HOLD: This is a patient recommendation. It appears when the data suggests there is more upside potential than downside risk. A "Hold" signal encourages waiting for a potentially better selling opportunity, as the market's collective behavior is leaning more positive.

Anatomy of the Insight

Each recommendation is built from a consistent framework that explains the "why," "how long," and "what if" behind the call.

1. The Core Analysis

The recommendation is a summary of four key analytical pillars. We look at the market's message through different lenses to get a complete picture:

  • Trend: Is the market's momentum heading higher, lower, or sideways? We check if the current price action is confirming the existing trend or showing signs of losing steam.
  • Sentiment: Are traders collectively more fearful of a price drop or more eager to catch a rally? We measure this by comparing the cost of options that bet on higher prices versus those that bet on lower prices.
  • Risk: Is the market paying up to protect against a sudden, sharp price move? By looking at the cost of "disaster insurance" in the options market, we can see if the crowd is complacent or on high alert.
  • Volatility: How big are the price swings the market is expecting? Low volatility suggests calm, range-bound trading, while high volatility means the market is pricing in the potential for much larger moves.
2. The Time Horizon

No market stance lasts forever. The Expected Duration section provides context on how long the current recommendation might be relevant, based on market cycles, contract expirations, or upcoming events. It helps set a realistic timeframe for your strategy.

3. The Exit Plan

Perhaps the most important part is knowing when to change course. The Reversal Triggers section clearly lists the specific, observable market events that would cause the recommendation to flip. This turns the insight into a dynamic tool, giving you clear signposts to watch for that would signal a fundamental shift in the market's posture.

Strategy

The Strategy insight translates all the market analysis into a practical, time-based marketing plan. While other sections tell you *what* the market is doing, this section helps you decide *how* and *when* to act based on your farm's inventory and marketing cycle.

It breaks down the complex futures market into simple, actionable recommendations for different portions of your crop, from what's in the bin to what you'll plant next year.

What You’ll See

Tap the thumbnail below to open an example page. You’ll see a consistent layout that turns the crowd’s view into a clear plan across near‑term and forward periods.

Price

Tap the thumbnail below to open an example page. You’ll see a clean, static demo with the full left navigation and the key charts described below.

What the Charts Show

Each analysis is built around a series of charts derived from options data. Here’s what to look for:

  • Probability Density vs. Bell Curve: This is the main event. It maps out the probability of the price finishing at any specific point upon expiration. A perfect, symmetrical bell curve suggests a calm, balanced market. A curve that is lopsided (skewed) or has fat tails can show that the market is pricing in a higher chance of a sharp move in one direction.
  • Market Sentiment Heatmap: This chart visualizes where the bullish (call options) and bearish (put options) bets are clustered. It's a quick way to see where the market's money is being placed and at what price levels sentiment shifts.
  • Probability of Expiring In-the-Money: This translates the complex options data into a simple percentage. For any price on the chart, it tells you the market-implied odds that the contract will expire above that price. It’s a direct look at the crowd's confidence in future price levels.
  • Probability of Touch: This shows the odds that the price will simply *hit* a certain level at any time before the contract expires, even if it doesn’t close there. This probability is always higher than the chance of expiring at that level and is useful for understanding short-term risk and potential price targets.

The Plain-Language Summary

Below the charts, you'll find a narrative summary. This text connects the dots between the different visualizations and explains the key takeaways in simple terms. It’s the story the data is telling—what the crowd is thinking, where they see risk, and what a reasonable range of future prices looks like, all without the jargon.

Skew

Skew measures the balance of fear and greed in the market. In simple terms, it shows how much more traders are willing to pay for protection against a price drop (put options) versus how much they'll pay to bet on a price rally (call options). It's a powerful way to see the market's collective bias.

Think of it like this: if farmers are more worried about prices falling than they are excited about them rising, they'll bid up the price of crop insurance (puts). This creates a 'skew' in the options market. By analyzing this shape, we can see whether the crowd is leaning defensive or aggressive.

What You’ll See

Tap the thumbnail below to open an example page. You’ll see a static demo with the left navigation and charts that match the description below.

What the Charts Show

The skew analysis presents a few key views of this market dynamic:

  • Current vs. Prior Day Skew: This chart gives you a snapshot of today's skew curve against yesterday's. It's the quickest way to see if the market's risk perception has changed overnight. A steeper curve often means fear is rising, while a flatter curve can signal complacency.
  • 5-Day Skew Evolution: This view shows you the trend. By layering the last five days of skew curves, you can see if the market's bias is building, easing, or staying consistent. It helps distinguish a one-day blip from a developing shift in sentiment.
  • Average Skew (7, 30, 60-Day): These charts provide historical context. Comparing the current skew to its recent averages helps you understand if today's market mood is normal or an outlier. It grounds the daily changes in a longer-term perspective.

The Plain-Language Summary

The narrative summary synthesizes these charts into a coherent story. It explains what the skew's shape and recent changes mean for market sentiment, risk appetite, and potential price direction. It's designed to give you the bottom line from the crowd's perspective, without you needing to be an options expert.

Sentiment

Sentiment analysis looks at the market's mood across different time horizons—from next week to next year. It measures the collective feeling of the market by comparing the demand for downside protection (puts) versus upside bets (calls) for every available options contract.

This creates a 'term structure' of sentiment. Is the market more nervous about the near future or the distant future? Is the mood consistent, or are there pockets of unusual fear or optimism? This analysis helps answer those questions.

What You’ll See

Tap the thumbnail below to open an example page. You’ll see a static demo with the full left navigation and charts that match the description below.

What the Charts Show

The analysis uses several charts to build a complete picture of the market's mood:

  • Sentiment Term Structure (Short & Long-Term): These charts plot the market mood across all contracts, from those expiring in a few days to those expiring in over a year. This reveals the shape of sentiment over time. A downward-sloping curve, for example, might show that traders are more worried about immediate price drops than long-term ones.
  • Day-over-Day Comparison: This chart overlays today's sentiment curve with yesterday's. It's a quick and powerful way to see how the collective mood has shifted in the last 24 hours across all time horizons.
  • Historical Percentile Tables: These tables put today's sentiment readings into context. For different timeframes (e.g., 7 days, 30 days, 90 days out), they show how the current mood compares to its own history. A reading in the 90th percentile, for instance, would indicate an unusually high level of fear compared to the recent past.

The Plain-Language Summary

The narrative summary pulls all these pieces together. It interprets the shape of the sentiment curve, the significance of any recent changes, and the historical context from the percentile data. The goal is to provide a clear, jargon-free takeaway about what the market's collective mood is telling us right now.

Volatility

Volatility measures the market's expectation of how much prices might swing. Think of it as the market's 'speedometer.' A high reading suggests the crowd expects a bumpy ride ahead, while a low reading suggests a calmer environment. We look at two types of volatility to get a full picture.

What You’ll See

Tap the thumbnail below to open an example page. You’ll see a static demo with the full left navigation and charts that match the description below.

What the Charts Show

The analysis compares what the market *thinks* will happen with what *has* happened, using three key charts:

  • ATM Implied Volatility: This is the market's forward-looking best guess. It's derived from options prices and shows the magnitude of price swings the crowd is currently pricing in for the future. It's a direct read on the market's current level of anxiety or complacency.
  • Historical Volatility: This is the rearview mirror. It measures the actual price swings that have occurred over a recent period (e.g., the last 30 days). It tells us how bumpy the ride has actually been.
  • Volatility Spread: This chart shows the difference between implied and historical volatility. A large positive spread (implied is much higher than historical) suggests the market is bracing for more turbulence than it has recently experienced. A negative spread is rare but suggests the market may be underestimating future risk.

The Plain-Language Summary

Think of volatility as the market’s forecast for turbulence. It tells you how big of a daily price swing the real-money crowd is bracing for. When volatility is high, the market is pricing in the potential for wide, choppy moves in either direction. This can mean more opportunities to hit a price target, but also more risk of sharp drops. When it's low, the market expects calmer, more predictable trading days. The summary explains what the current volatility level means for your marketing plan—whether it's a time to be patient or a time to be ready for bigger swings.

Risk

While Volatility tells you how big the market expects a typical price move to be, Risk analysis goes a step further. It shows you what the market is pricing for outsized moves—the kind that can really help or hurt your bottom line. It’s about understanding where the real-money crowd sees the potential for surprise.

We measure this by looking at the cost of options that are far from the current price. Think of it like this: if flood insurance is suddenly expensive in a dry area, it tells you the market is pricing in a higher chance of a flood, even if the sky is clear. In the same way, when the cost of protection against a sharp price drop gets expensive, it’s a powerful message from the crowd.

What You’ll See

The Risk page gives you a clear, visual way to see how the market is pricing these potential surprises. Tap the thumbnail below to open a full example.

The Plain-Language Summary

The summary explains what the risk charts are telling you in simple terms. It highlights whether the market is pricing in normal risk or if it’s on high alert for a big move, helping you understand the current risk environment for your marketing decisions.

Carry

Carry is what the market will pay you (or charge you) to hold a commodity over time. It’s a fundamental concept that reflects the balance of supply and demand, storage costs, and interest rates. A positive carry (a “contango” market) means the market is well-supplied and willing to pay you to store your grain for later delivery. A negative carry (a “backwardated” market) signals tightness—the market wants your grain now and is willing to pay a premium for it.

What You’ll See

Tap the thumbnail below to open an example page. You’ll see a static demo with the full left navigation and charts that match the description below.

What the Charts Show

The analysis includes two key charts:

  • Spreads Table: This table shows the price difference between different contract months. It’s the raw data behind the carry calculation, showing you exactly what the market is paying for time.
  • Carry Curve: This chart visualizes the spreads, making it easy to see the overall shape of the market. You can quickly identify whether the market is in contango or backwardation, and how strong that trend is.

The Plain-Language Summary

The summary translates the carry data into a clear message. It explains what the current carry situation means for storage decisions and provides insight into the market’s view on supply and demand. It helps you decide whether the market is giving you a financial incentive to store your crop or telling you to sell it sooner rather than later.

Market Movers

This analysis connects the dots between real-world events and their impact on the market's expectation of volatility. It identifies key news, reports, and economic data releases scheduled for yesterday, this week, and next week, and shows you how the options market reacted—or is positioned to react—to them.

It helps answer the question: “What events are actually moving the needle for the real-money crowd?” Instead of just reading headlines, you can see which ones the market is truly pricing in as significant.

What You’ll See

Tap the thumbnail below to open an example page. You’ll see a static demo showing a table of market-moving events and their associated volatility impact.

How to Read It

The table is straightforward. It lists upcoming events (like USDA reports or FOMC meetings) and shows the market's implied volatility change associated with them. A large volatility number means the crowd expects that event to cause significant price swings.

The Plain-Language Summary

The summary puts the numbers into context. It highlights the most significant events on the calendar and explains what the market's reaction tells you about its focus. This helps you anticipate periods of higher risk and understand what news is truly driving the market's behavior.

The Funds

This page summarizes how large speculative traders (the funds) are positioned. It’s a plain read on where the big money is leaning, updated daily from the latest available report.

What You’ll See

Tap the thumbnail below to open an example page. You’ll see the funds’ positioning summary and context.

Today / Yesterday

A simple side‑by‑side of today versus yesterday, so you can quickly see what changed in the market’s crowd view.

What You’ll See

Tap the thumbnail below to open an example page. You’ll see the comparison view rendered from the dated snapshot.